CFR 1907 Cluj vs Alashkert — UEFA Europa League 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 5+ matches
CFR 1907 Cluj52%
Alashkert23%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
CFR 1907 Cluj creates 62% more chances
Season form · 12 home / 5 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes51
- No49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
CFR 1907 Cluj ↓
Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
CFR 1907 Cluj at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches
Alashkert away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
CFR 1907 Cluj attack 1.67 + Alashkert defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.64
Alashkert attack 1.20 + CFR 1907 Cluj defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 52%?"
CFR 1907 Cluj at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 52% does not mean "CFR 1907 Cluj will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
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Sturm Graz
FCSB
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Red Bull Salzburg
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Nice
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Malmo FF
Maccabi Tel AvivIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
CFR 1907 Cluj host Alashkert on Thursday, 16 August 2018 at 17:00. The match is part of the UEFA Europa League 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: CFR 1907 Cluj vs Alashkert
CFR 1907 Cluj beat Alashkert 5-0 in UEFA Europa League on August 16, 2018.
Goals: E. Culio (20' pen), B. Omrani (45+1', 62'), O. Hoban (59'), S. Mailat (90+1').
The match was played at Dr. Constantin Rădulescu in Cluj Napoca.