Grasshoppers 1–1 Yverdon Sport: Result & Stats

Grasshoppers

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Yverdon Sport

12/16/2023

Super League · Round 18Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Grasshoppers42%

×Draw25%

Yverdon Sport33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrasshoppersExpected goals in this matchYverdon Sport

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.32

Grasshoppers

1.54

Yverdon Sport

1.32

Grasshoppers creates 17% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 6 away

1.48

creates per match

1.23

1.42

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Grasshoppers

1.48

Yverdon Sport

1.23

allows per match

Grasshoppers

1.42

Yverdon Sport

1.60

+0.24scores more than expected

finishing

-0.23scores less than expected

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.24scores more

Yverdon Sport-0.23scores less

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

Yverdon Sport →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw

67%

Grasshoppers or Yverdon Sport

75%

Draw or Yverdon Sport

58%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

21%

Yverdon Sport wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

79%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

45%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

20%

Yverdon Sport 1+ goals

73%

Yverdon Sport 2+ goals

38%

Yverdon Sport 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

57%

Yverdon Sport (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 29 matches

Yverdon Sport away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.60 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.48 + Yverdon Sport defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.54

Yverdon Sport attack 1.23 + Grasshoppers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grasshoppers scores more

42%

level

25%

Yverdon Sport scores more

33%

Grasshoppers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff