Grasshoppers 4–1 SCR Altach: Result & Stats

Grasshoppers

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

SCR Altach

M. Shabani 50'

F. De Carvalho 20'

S. Demhasaj 17'

G. Morandi 1'

C. Bukta 72'

12/2/2022

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3GC/Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Grasshoppers51%

×Draw20%

SCR Altach29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrasshoppersExpected goals in this matchSCR Altach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.68

Grasshoppers

2.27

SCR Altach

1.68

Grasshoppers creates 35% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

3.25

creates per match

1.60

1.75

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Grasshoppers

3.25

SCR Altach

1.60

allows per match

Grasshoppers

1.75

SCR Altach

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.00on par

SCR Altach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

SCR Altach →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw

71%

Grasshoppers or SCR Altach

80%

Draw or SCR Altach

49%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

31%

SCR Altach wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

90%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

66%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

39%

SCR Altach 1+ goals

81%

SCR Altach 2+ goals

50%

SCR Altach 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

64%

SCR Altach (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

SCR Altach away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 3.25 + SCR Altach defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 2.27

SCR Altach attack 1.60 + Grasshoppers defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Grasshoppers scores more

51%

level

20%

SCR Altach scores more

29%

Grasshoppers at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

20'

50'

72'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff