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Grasshoppers vs FC ST. Gallen — Super League 2025

Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
Lee Young-Jun 69'
N. Muci 12'
5/22/2025Super LeagueSuper League · Relegation Round - 5Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grasshoppers42%
×Draw23%
FC ST. Gallen34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshoppers
1.69
FC ST. Gallen
1.50

Grasshoppers creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 11 away

creates per match

Grasshoppers
1.40
FC ST. Gallen
1.48

allows per match

Grasshoppers
1.51
FC ST. Gallen
1.97

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.37scores more
FC ST. Gallen+0.43scores more

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC ST. Gallen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw
66%
Grasshoppers or FC ST. Gallen
77%
Draw or FC ST. Gallen
58%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+
22%
FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals
82%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
50%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
24%
FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
78%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
44%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
55%
FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.51 · 22 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.97 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.40 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.69

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.48 + Grasshoppers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Grasshoppers scores more
42%
level
23%
FC ST. Gallen scores more
34%

Grasshoppers at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17
T. Verón LupiGrasshoppersGrasshoppers · M
8.2

Match Events

12'
N. Muci↳ T. Verón Lupi
28'
Corsin Konietzke
36'
Albert Vallci
42'
Nikolas Muci
46'
C. Okoroji← K. Faber
46'
C. Akolo← F. Mambimbi
46'
L. Ibraimov← B. Toma
52'
Tim Meyer
54'
Amir Abrashi
61'
Jordi Quintillà← C. Konietzke
63'
Stephan Ambrosius
69'
Lee Young-Jun↳ A. Abrashi
72'
J. Nsame← K. Csoboth
76'
N. Irankunda← Lee Young-Jun
76'
M. Choinière← A. Abrashi
76'
S. Stroscio← T. Verón Lupi
82'
Albert Vallci
89'
Y. Bettkober← T. Meyer
89'
P. Schürpf← N. Muci

Possession

46%Grasshoppers

Shots

21Grasshoppers

Pass accuracy

50%Grasshoppers

Statistics

GrasshoppersFC
Overview
46%Possession54%
21Total Shots6
2.10Expected Goals (xG)0.18
10Corners1
9Fouls13
Shots
21Total Shots6
5On Target1
11Off Target5
5Blocked0
14Inside Box2
7Outside Box4
Passing
46%Possession54%
312Total Passes379
226Accurate Passes276
72%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls13
3Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1
3Offsides2

Match Recap: Grasshoppers vs FC ST. Gallen

Grasshoppers beat FC ST. Gallen 2-0 in Super League on May 22, 2025.

Goals: N. Muci (12'), Lee Young-Jun (69').

FC ST. Gallen controlled possession (54%) and registered 6 shots to 21.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.