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Grasshoppers vs FC ST. Gallen — Super League 2018

Grasshoppers
Grasshoppers
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
FC ST. Gallen
FC ST. Gallen
11/10/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 14Stadion Letzigrund

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Grasshoppers44%
×Draw23%
FC ST. Gallen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grasshoppers
1.73
FC ST. Gallen
1.45

Grasshoppers creates 19% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 11 away

creates per match

Grasshoppers
1.48
FC ST. Gallen
1.48

allows per match

Grasshoppers
1.42
FC ST. Gallen
1.97

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.24scores more
FC ST. Gallen+0.43scores more

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

FC ST. Gallen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw
68%
Grasshoppers or FC ST. Gallen
77%
Draw or FC ST. Gallen
56%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+
23%
FC ST. Gallen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals
82%
Grasshoppers 2+ goals
52%
Grasshoppers 3+ goals
25%
FC ST. Gallen 1+ goals
77%
FC ST. Gallen 2+ goals
42%
FC ST. Gallen 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)
58%
FC ST. Gallen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.42 · 29 matches

FC ST. Gallen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.97 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.48 + FC ST. Gallen defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.73

FC ST. Gallen attack 1.48 + Grasshoppers defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Grasshoppers scores more
44%
level
23%
FC ST. Gallen scores more
32%

Grasshoppers at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grasshoppers vs FC ST. Gallen

FC ST. Gallen beat Grasshoppers 2-1 in Super League on November 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Letzigrund in Zürich.