Grasshoppers 3–3 BSC Young Boys: Result & Stats

Grasshoppers

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

BSC Young Boys

J. Asp 74'

O. Clemente 25'

S. Stroscio 16'

C. Bedia 89' (pen)

C. Fassnacht 67'

J. Monteiro 27'

10/30/2025

Super League · Round 11Letzigrund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Grasshoppers43%

×Draw25%

BSC Young Boys33%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GrasshoppersExpected goals in this matchBSC Young Boys

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.35

Grasshoppers

1.57

BSC Young Boys

1.35

Grasshoppers creates 16% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

1.24

creates per match

1.04

1.67

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Grasshoppers

1.24

BSC Young Boys

1.04

allows per match

Grasshoppers

1.67

BSC Young Boys

1.91

+0.76scores more than expected

finishing

+1.29scores more than expected

finishing

Grasshoppers+0.76scores more

BSC Young Boys+1.29scores more

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grasshoppers ↓

BSC Young Boys →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Grasshoppers or draw

67%

Grasshoppers or BSC Young Boys

75%

Draw or BSC Young Boys

57%

Winning margin

Grasshoppers wins by 2+

21%

BSC Young Boys wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Grasshoppers 1+ goals

79%

Grasshoppers 2+ goals

46%

Grasshoppers 3+ goals

21%

BSC Young Boys 1+ goals

74%

BSC Young Boys 2+ goals

39%

BSC Young Boys 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Grasshoppers (draw refunded)

56%

BSC Young Boys (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grasshoppers at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.67 · 7 matches

BSC Young Boys away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.91 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grasshoppers attack 1.24 + BSC Young Boys defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.57

BSC Young Boys attack 1.04 + Grasshoppers defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Grasshoppers scores more

43%

level

25%

BSC Young Boys scores more

33%

Grasshoppers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Grasshoppers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Asp

Grasshoppers · F

9.3

Match Events

16'

S. Stroscio↳ J. Asp

22'

Nikolas Muci

25'

O. Clemente↳ J. Asp

27'

J. Monteiro↳ S. Janko

43'

Sandro Lauper

46'

E. Fernandes← D. Pech

46'

C. Bedia← S. Cordova

66'

S. Diarrassouba← O. Clemente

67'

J. Hadjam← R. Andrews

67'

C. Fassnacht↳ C. Bedia

68'

A. Sanches← A. Gigovic

74'

J. Asp↳ S. Diarrassouba

79'

Saidy Janko

82'

Tanguy Zoukrou

84'

E. Colley← C. Fassnacht

86'

Y. Bettkober← N. Muci

86'

L. Giandomenico← S. Stroscio

89'

C. BediaPenalty

90+1'

Saidy Janko

90+1'

Saidy Janko

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GrasshoppersBSC

Overview

38%Possession62%

17Total Shots10

1.48Expected Goals (xG)1.81

5Corners2

22Fouls7

Shots

17Total Shots10

8On Target4

5Off Target5

4Blocked1

15Inside Box8

2Outside Box2

Passing

38%Possession62%

279Total Passes470

183Accurate Passes359

66%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

22Fouls7

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards2

0Offsides1