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Grapiuna Itabuna vs Colo Colo — Baiano - 2 2019

Grapiuna Itabuna
Grapiuna Itabuna
FT
1 – 1
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
6/26/2024Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 5Estádio Mário Pessoa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Grapiuna Itabuna18%
×Draw23%
Colo Colo60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grapiuna Itabuna
0.88
Colo Colo
1.83

Colo Colo creates 108% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 17 away

creates per match

Grapiuna Itabuna
0.93
Colo Colo
1.59

allows per match

Grapiuna Itabuna
2.07
Colo Colo
0.82

finishing

Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grapiuna Itabuna ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–112%
0–211%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Grapiuna Itabuna or draw
40%
Grapiuna Itabuna or Colo Colo
77%
Draw or Colo Colo
82%

Winning margin

Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+
6%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
35%

Team goals

Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals
59%
Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals
22%
Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals
6%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
84%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
54%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)
23%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
77%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grapiuna Itabuna at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 29 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.93 + Colo Colo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Colo Colo attack 1.59 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Grapiuna Itabuna scores more
18%
level
23%
Colo Colo scores more
60%

Colo Colo at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Grapiuna Itabuna vs Colo Colo

Grapiuna Itabuna and Colo Colo drew 1-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 26, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Mário Pessoa in Ilhéus, Bahia.