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Colo Colo vs Grapiuna Itabuna — Baiano - 2 2019

Colo Colo
Colo Colo
FT
1 – 0
Grapiuna Itabuna
Grapiuna Itabuna
7/18/2021Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 5Estádio Waldomiro Borges

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Colo Colo44%
×Draw33%
Grapiuna Itabuna24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colo Colo
1.05
Grapiuna Itabuna
0.69

Colo Colo creates 52% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 26 away

creates per match

Colo Colo
0.65
Grapiuna Itabuna
0.85

allows per match

Colo Colo
0.53
Grapiuna Itabuna
1.46

finishing

Colo Colo+0.00on par
Grapiuna Itabuna+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colo Colo ↓

Grapiuna Itabuna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Colo Colo or draw
76%
Colo Colo or Grapiuna Itabuna
67%
Draw or Grapiuna Itabuna
56%

Winning margin

Colo Colo wins by 2+
18%
Grapiuna Itabuna wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Colo Colo 1+ goals
65%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
28%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
9%
Grapiuna Itabuna 1+ goals
50%
Grapiuna Itabuna 2+ goals
15%
Grapiuna Itabuna 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Colo Colo (draw refunded)
65%
Grapiuna Itabuna (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colo Colo at home — creates 0.65, concedes 0.53 · 17 matches

Grapiuna Itabuna away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.46 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colo Colo attack 0.65 + Grapiuna Itabuna defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.05

Grapiuna Itabuna attack 0.85 + Colo Colo defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Colo Colo scores more
44%
level
33%
Grapiuna Itabuna scores more
24%

Colo Colo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Baiano - 2: Colo Colo 1–0 Grapiuna Itabuna

Colo Colo beat Grapiuna Itabuna 1-0 in Baiano - 2 on July 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Waldomiro Borges in Jequié, Bahia.