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Granollers vs Cerdanyola del Vallès — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Granollers
Granollers
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 2Campo Municipal Carrer Girona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Granollers43%
×Draw26%
Cerdanyola del Vallès31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granollers
1.43
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.19

Granollers creates 20% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 77 away

creates per match

Granollers
1.42
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.08

allows per match

Granollers
1.30
Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.44

finishing

Granollers+0.00on par
Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granollers ↓

Cerdanyola del Vallès →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Granollers or draw
69%
Granollers or Cerdanyola del Vallès
74%
Draw or Cerdanyola del Vallès
57%

Winning margin

Granollers wins by 2+
20%
Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Granollers 1+ goals
76%
Granollers 2+ goals
42%
Granollers 3+ goals
17%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
70%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
33%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Granollers (draw refunded)
58%
Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granollers at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.44 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granollers attack 1.42 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.43

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.08 + Granollers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Granollers scores more
43%
level
26%
Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
31%

Granollers at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Granollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Granollers vs Cerdanyola del Vallès

Granollers and Cerdanyola del Vallès drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Carrer Girona in Granollers.