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Cerdanyola del Vallès vs Granollers — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Cerdanyola del Vallès
Cerdanyola del Vallès
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Granollers
Granollers
1/24/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 13Estadio Municipal Les Fontetes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Cerdanyola del Vallès35%
×Draw25%
Granollers39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.35
Granollers
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 43 away

creates per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.31
Granollers
1.44

allows per match

Cerdanyola del Vallès
1.43
Granollers
1.40

finishing

Cerdanyola del Vallès+0.00on par
Granollers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cerdanyola del Vallès ↓

Granollers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cerdanyola del Vallès or draw
61%
Cerdanyola del Vallès or Granollers
75%
Draw or Granollers
65%

Winning margin

Cerdanyola del Vallès wins by 2+
16%
Granollers wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cerdanyola del Vallès 1+ goals
74%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 2+ goals
39%
Cerdanyola del Vallès 3+ goals
15%
Granollers 1+ goals
76%
Granollers 2+ goals
42%
Granollers 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cerdanyola del Vallès (draw refunded)
47%
Granollers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cerdanyola del Vallès at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Granollers away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cerdanyola del Vallès attack 1.31 + Granollers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Granollers attack 1.44 + Cerdanyola del Vallès defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Cerdanyola del Vallès scores more
35%
level
25%
Granollers scores more
39%

Granollers at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Granollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Cerdanyola del Vallès 2–1 Granollers

Cerdanyola del Vallès beat Granollers 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 24, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Les Fontetes in Cerdanyola del Vallès.