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Granollers vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Granollers
Granollers
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Castelldefels
Castelldefels
11/10/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Campo Municipal Carrer Girona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Granollers40%
×Draw27%
Castelldefels33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granollers
1.33
Castelldefels
1.19

Granollers creates 12% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 74 away

creates per match

Granollers
1.42
Castelldefels
1.07

allows per match

Granollers
1.30
Castelldefels
1.24

finishing

Granollers+0.00on par
Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granollers ↓

Castelldefels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Granollers or draw
67%
Granollers or Castelldefels
73%
Draw or Castelldefels
60%

Winning margin

Granollers wins by 2+
18%
Castelldefels wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Granollers 1+ goals
74%
Granollers 2+ goals
38%
Granollers 3+ goals
15%
Castelldefels 1+ goals
70%
Castelldefels 2+ goals
33%
Castelldefels 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Granollers (draw refunded)
55%
Castelldefels (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granollers at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.30 · 43 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granollers attack 1.42 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Granollers defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Granollers scores more
40%
level
27%
Castelldefels scores more
33%

Granollers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Granollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Granollers 4–1 Castelldefels

Granollers beat Castelldefels 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on November 10, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal Carrer Girona in Granollers.