Castelldefels 3–0 Granollers: Result & Stats

Castelldefels

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Granollers

Fran Fuentes 69' (pen)

Kevin Díaz 53'

Javier Eslava 42'

3/27/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 29Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Castelldefels34%

×Draw27%

Granollers40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastelldefelsExpected goals in this matchGranollers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.34

Castelldefels

1.21

Granollers

1.34

Granollers creates 11% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 43 away

1.03

creates per match

1.44

1.24

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Castelldefels

1.03

Granollers

1.44

allows per match

Castelldefels

1.24

Granollers

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Granollers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Granollers →

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw

60%

Castelldefels or Granollers

73%

Draw or Granollers

66%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+

14%

Granollers wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

70%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

34%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

12%

Granollers 1+ goals

74%

Granollers 2+ goals

39%

Granollers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

46%

Granollers (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Granollers away — creates 1.44, concedes 1.40 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Granollers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.21

Granollers attack 1.44 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Castelldefels scores more

34%

level

27%

Granollers scores more

40%

Granollers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Granollers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Javier Eslava

53'

Kevin Díaz

60'

Manu González← Guillem Hernández

63'

Gerard Urbina← Victor Diaz

69'

Fran FuentesPenalty

75'

Aitor Serrano← Fran Orellana

75'

Sergi Piña← Kevin Díaz

75'

Aitor García← Isaac Padilla

75'

Marc Muñoz← Ayub El Harrak

75'

Roger García← Fran Álvarez

81'

Genís Cargol← Kike Ramírez

81'

Adrià Recort← Hamza Bakali

Castelldefels

Granollers

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Díaz

▼

Ramírez

▼

Orellana

Manager: Miki Carrillo

60'▲Manu González←▼Guillem Hernández

75'▲Aitor Serrano←▼Fran Orellana

75'▲Sergi Piña←▼Kevin Díaz

81'▲Genís Cargol←▼Kike Ramírez

Castelldefels substitutes

GonzálezSerranoPiñaCargol

Manager: José Solivelles

63'▲Gerard Urbina←▼Victor Diaz

75'▲Aitor García←▼Isaac Padilla

75'▲Marc Muñoz←▼Ayub El Harrak

75'▲Roger García←▼Fran Álvarez

81'▲Adrià Recort←▼Hamza Bakali

Granollers substitutes

UrbinaGarcíaMuñozGarcíaRecort

Match Recap: Castelldefels vs Granollers

Castelldefels beat Granollers 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 27, 2022.

Goals: Javier Eslava (42'), Kevin Díaz (53'), Fran Fuentes (69' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Els Canyars in Castelldefels.

Castelldefels vs Granollers — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Castelldefels vs Granollers