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Grand-Saconnex vs Chênois — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Grand-Saconnex
Grand-Saconnex
FT
3 – 2
Chênois
Chênois
9/9/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 6Stade du Blanché

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Grand-Saconnex41%
×Draw24%
Chênois35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grand-Saconnex
1.65
Chênois
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 86 away

creates per match

Grand-Saconnex
1.70
Chênois
1.55

allows per match

Grand-Saconnex
1.47
Chênois
1.60

finishing

Grand-Saconnex+0.00on par
Chênois+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grand-Saconnex ↓

Chênois →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Grand-Saconnex or draw
65%
Grand-Saconnex or Chênois
76%
Draw or Chênois
59%

Winning margin

Grand-Saconnex wins by 2+
21%
Chênois wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Grand-Saconnex 1+ goals
81%
Grand-Saconnex 2+ goals
49%
Grand-Saconnex 3+ goals
23%
Chênois 1+ goals
78%
Chênois 2+ goals
44%
Chênois 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Grand-Saconnex (draw refunded)
54%
Chênois (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grand-Saconnex at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

Chênois away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grand-Saconnex attack 1.70 + Chênois defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.65

Chênois attack 1.55 + Grand-Saconnex defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Grand-Saconnex scores more
41%
level
24%
Chênois scores more
35%

Grand-Saconnex at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Grand-Saconnex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Liga Classic - Group 1: Grand-Saconnex 3–2 Chênois

Grand-Saconnex beat Chênois 3-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on September 9, 2023.

The match was played at Stade du Blanché in Le Grand-Saconnex.