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Chênois vs Grand-Saconnex — 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 2019

Chênois
Chênois
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Grand-Saconnex
Grand-Saconnex
4/29/20231. Liga Classic - Group 11. Liga Classic - Group 1 · Group 1 - 26Stade des Trois-Chênes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Chênois44%
×Draw23%
Grand-Saconnex33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chênois
1.79
Grand-Saconnex
1.52

Chênois creates 18% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 30 away

creates per match

Chênois
1.85
Grand-Saconnex
1.73

allows per match

Chênois
1.32
Grand-Saconnex
1.73

finishing

Chênois+0.00on par
Grand-Saconnex+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chênois ↓

Grand-Saconnex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Chênois or draw
67%
Chênois or Grand-Saconnex
77%
Draw or Grand-Saconnex
56%

Winning margin

Chênois wins by 2+
24%
Grand-Saconnex wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Chênois 1+ goals
83%
Chênois 2+ goals
53%
Chênois 3+ goals
26%
Grand-Saconnex 1+ goals
78%
Grand-Saconnex 2+ goals
45%
Grand-Saconnex 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Chênois (draw refunded)
57%
Grand-Saconnex (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chênois at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.32 · 87 matches

Grand-Saconnex away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chênois attack 1.85 + Grand-Saconnex defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.79

Grand-Saconnex attack 1.73 + Chênois defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Chênois scores more
44%
level
23%
Grand-Saconnex scores more
33%

Chênois at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Chênois will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Chênois vs Grand-Saconnex

Chênois beat Grand-Saconnex 3-2 in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on April 29, 2023.

The match was played at Stade des Trois-Chênes in Chêne-Bourg.