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CSKA Pomir vs Regar-TadAZ — Vysshaya Liga 2018

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
FT
0 – 2
Regar-TadAZ
Regar-TadAZ
9/23/2018Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 18Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

CSKA Pomir44%
×Draw26%
Regar-TadAZ30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
1.46
Regar-TadAZ
1.16

CSKA Pomir creates 26% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
1.95
Regar-TadAZ
1.16

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.16
Regar-TadAZ
0.97

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Regar-TadAZ+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Regar-TadAZ →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
70%
CSKA Pomir or Regar-TadAZ
74%
Draw or Regar-TadAZ
56%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
21%
Regar-TadAZ wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
77%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
43%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
18%
Regar-TadAZ 1+ goals
69%
Regar-TadAZ 2+ goals
32%
Regar-TadAZ 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
59%
Regar-TadAZ (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Regar-TadAZ away — creates 1.16, concedes 0.97 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 1.95 + Regar-TadAZ defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.46

Regar-TadAZ attack 1.16 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
44%
level
26%
Regar-TadAZ scores more
30%

CSKA Pomir at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Pomir vs Regar-TadAZ

Regar-TadAZ beat CSKA Pomir 2-0 in Vysshaya Liga on September 23, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Politekhnikum in Dushanbe.