Annagh United 2–1 Bangor: Result & Stats

Annagh United

FT

2 – 1

Bangor

11/9/2019

Premier Intermediate League · Round 6Tandragee Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Annagh United35%

×Draw20%

Bangor45%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Annagh UnitedExpected goals in this matchBangor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.09

2.39

Annagh United

2.09

Bangor

2.39

Bangor creates 14% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

2.44

creates per match

3.00

1.78

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Annagh United

2.44

Bangor

3.00

allows per match

Annagh United

1.78

Bangor

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par

Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes79
No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Bangor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–02%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–36%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

82%18%3.5

65%35%4.5

45%55%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw

55%

Annagh United or Bangor

80%

Draw or Bangor

65%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+

19%

Bangor wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals

88%

Annagh United 2+ goals

62%

Annagh United 3+ goals

34%

Bangor 1+ goals

91%

Bangor 2+ goals

69%

Bangor 3+ goals

42%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)

43%

Bangor (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

74%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 2.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

Bangor away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 2.44 + Bangor defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.09

Bangor attack 3.00 + Annagh United defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Annagh United scores more

35%

level

20%

Bangor scores more

45%

Bangor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff