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Bangor vs Annagh United — League #407 2026

Bangor
Bangor
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 1
Annagh United
Annagh United
B. Arthurs 38'
M. Morgan 28'
R. McDonald 80'
N. Kerr 76' (pen)
R. Swan 13'
4/11/2025League #407League #407 · Promotion Group - 3Bangor Fuels Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Bangor48%
×Draw24%
Annagh United28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangor
1.67
Annagh United
1.23

Bangor creates 36% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bangor
2.14
Annagh United
1.33

allows per match

Bangor
1.14
Annagh United
1.20

finishing

Bangor+0.00on par
Annagh United+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangor ↓

Annagh United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Bangor or draw
72%
Bangor or Annagh United
76%
Draw or Annagh United
52%

Winning margin

Bangor wins by 2+
25%
Annagh United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Bangor 1+ goals
81%
Bangor 2+ goals
50%
Bangor 3+ goals
23%
Annagh United 1+ goals
71%
Annagh United 2+ goals
35%
Annagh United 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Bangor (draw refunded)
63%
Annagh United (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangor at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

Annagh United away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangor attack 2.14 + Annagh United defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.67

Annagh United attack 1.33 + Bangor defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Bangor scores more
48%
level
24%
Annagh United scores more
28%

Bangor at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
R. Swan
28'
M. Morgan
38'
B. Arthurs
73'
K. Owens
76'
N. KerrPenalty
80'
R. McDonald

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bangor vs Annagh United

Annagh United beat Bangor 3-2 in League #407 on April 11, 2025.

Goals: R. Swan (13'), M. Morgan (28'), B. Arthurs (38'), N. Kerr (76' pen), R. McDonald (80').

The match was played at Bangor Fuels Arena in Bangor.