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Annagh United vs Bangor — League #407 2026

Annagh United
Annagh United
FT
4 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Bangor
Bangor
S. Murray 86', 78'
R. Swan 79', 28'
M. Ferguson 73', 1'
B. Arthurs 22'
12/30/2024League #407League #407 · Round 23BMG Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Annagh United33%
×Draw23%
Bangor44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Annagh United
1.47
Bangor
1.75

Bangor creates 19% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 4 away

creates per match

Annagh United
1.94
Bangor
2.25

allows per match

Annagh United
1.25
Bangor
1.00

finishing

Annagh United+0.00on par
Bangor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Annagh United ↓

Bangor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Annagh United or draw
56%
Annagh United or Bangor
77%
Draw or Bangor
67%

Winning margin

Annagh United wins by 2+
15%
Bangor wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Annagh United 1+ goals
77%
Annagh United 2+ goals
43%
Annagh United 3+ goals
18%
Bangor 1+ goals
83%
Bangor 2+ goals
52%
Bangor 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Annagh United (draw refunded)
42%
Bangor (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Annagh United at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

Bangor away — creates 2.25, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Annagh United attack 1.94 + Bangor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Bangor attack 2.25 + Annagh United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Annagh United scores more
33%
level
23%
Bangor scores more
44%

Bangor at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bangor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
M. Ferguson
22'
B. Arthurs
28'
R. Swan
73'
M. Ferguson
78'
S. Murray
79'
R. Swan
86'
S. Murray

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Annagh United vs Bangor

Annagh United beat Bangor 4-3 in League #407 on December 30, 2024.

Goals: M. Ferguson (1', 73'), B. Arthurs (22'), R. Swan (28', 79'), S. Murray (78', 86').

The match was played at BMG Arena in Portadown.