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CSKA Pomir vs Khosilot Farkhor — Vysshaya Liga 2016

CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
FT
1 – 0
Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
4/30/2016Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 4Stadion Politekhnikum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

CSKA Pomir47%
×Draw23%
Khosilot Farkhor30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CSKA Pomir
1.81
Khosilot Farkhor
1.39

CSKA Pomir creates 30% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 28 away

creates per match

CSKA Pomir
2.00
Khosilot Farkhor
1.46

allows per match

CSKA Pomir
1.32
Khosilot Farkhor
1.61

finishing

CSKA Pomir+0.00on par
Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CSKA Pomir ↓

Khosilot Farkhor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

CSKA Pomir or draw
70%
CSKA Pomir or Khosilot Farkhor
77%
Draw or Khosilot Farkhor
53%

Winning margin

CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
26%
Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
84%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
54%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
27%
Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
75%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
40%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
61%
Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CSKA Pomir at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 34 matches

Khosilot Farkhor away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.61 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CSKA Pomir attack 2.00 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.81

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.46 + CSKA Pomir defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

CSKA Pomir scores more
47%
level
23%
Khosilot Farkhor scores more
30%

CSKA Pomir at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "CSKA Pomir will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CSKA Pomir vs Khosilot Farkhor

CSKA Pomir beat Khosilot Farkhor 1-0 in Vysshaya Liga on April 30, 2016.

The match was played at Stadion Politekhnikum in Dushanbe.