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Khosilot Farkhor vs CSKA Pomir — Vysshaya Liga 2025

Khosilot Farkhor
Khosilot Farkhor
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CSKA Pomir
CSKA Pomir
3/6/2026Vysshaya LigaVysshaya Liga · Round 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Khosilot Farkhor37%
×Draw27%
CSKA Pomir36%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Khosilot Farkhor
1.28
CSKA Pomir
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 37 away

creates per match

Khosilot Farkhor
1.59
CSKA Pomir
1.08

allows per match

Khosilot Farkhor
1.41
CSKA Pomir
0.97

finishing

Khosilot Farkhor+0.00on par
CSKA Pomir+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Khosilot Farkhor ↓

CSKA Pomir →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Khosilot Farkhor or draw
64%
Khosilot Farkhor or CSKA Pomir
73%
Draw or CSKA Pomir
63%

Winning margin

Khosilot Farkhor wins by 2+
16%
CSKA Pomir wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Khosilot Farkhor 1+ goals
72%
Khosilot Farkhor 2+ goals
37%
Khosilot Farkhor 3+ goals
14%
CSKA Pomir 1+ goals
71%
CSKA Pomir 2+ goals
36%
CSKA Pomir 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Khosilot Farkhor (draw refunded)
51%
CSKA Pomir (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Khosilot Farkhor at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

CSKA Pomir away — creates 1.08, concedes 0.97 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Khosilot Farkhor attack 1.59 + CSKA Pomir defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.28

CSKA Pomir attack 1.08 + Khosilot Farkhor defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Khosilot Farkhor scores more
37%
level
27%
CSKA Pomir scores more
36%

Khosilot Farkhor at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Khosilot Farkhor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Khosilot Farkhor vs CSKA Pomir

Khosilot Farkhor beat CSKA Pomir 3-0 in Vysshaya Liga on March 6, 2026.