Sport & Leisure Swifts 0–1 Queen's University

Sport & Leisure Swifts

FT

0 – 1

Queen's University

9/1/2018

League #561 · Round 2Queen's University Malone Playing Fields (Belfast)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Sport & Leisure Swifts25%

×Draw21%

Queen's University53%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sport & Leisure SwiftsExpected goals in this matchQueen's University

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

2.07

Sport & Leisure Swifts

1.37

Queen's University

2.07

Queen's University creates 51% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 18 away

1.80

creates per match

1.94

2.20

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Sport & Leisure Swifts

1.80

Queen's University

1.94

allows per match

Sport & Leisure Swifts

2.20

Queen's University

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sport & Leisure Swifts+0.00on par

Queen's University+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sport & Leisure Swifts ↓

Queen's University →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Sport & Leisure Swifts or draw

47%

Sport & Leisure Swifts or Queen's University

79%

Draw or Queen's University

75%

Winning margin

Sport & Leisure Swifts wins by 2+

11%

Queen's University wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Sport & Leisure Swifts 1+ goals

75%

Sport & Leisure Swifts 2+ goals

40%

Sport & Leisure Swifts 3+ goals

16%

Queen's University 1+ goals

87%

Queen's University 2+ goals

61%

Queen's University 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Sport & Leisure Swifts (draw refunded)

32%

Queen's University (draw refunded)

68%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sport & Leisure Swifts at home — creates 1.80, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

Queen's University away — creates 1.94, concedes 0.94 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sport & Leisure Swifts attack 1.80 + Queen's University defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.37

Queen's University attack 1.94 + Sport & Leisure Swifts defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Sport & Leisure Swifts scores more

25%

level

21%

Queen's University scores more

53%

Queen's University at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Queen's University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff