Queen's University 1–2 Sport & Leisure Swifts

Queen's University

FT

1 – 2

Sport & Leisure Swifts

3/17/2018

Premier Intermediate League · Round 21Queen's University Malone Playing Fields

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Queen's University65%

×Draw17%

Sport & Leisure Swifts19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen's UniversityExpected goals in this matchSport & Leisure Swifts

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.91

1.54

Queen's University

2.91

Sport & Leisure Swifts

1.54

Queen's University creates 89% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

2.31

creates per match

2.00

1.08

allows per match

3.50

creates per match

Queen's University

2.31

Sport & Leisure Swifts

2.00

allows per match

Queen's University

1.08

Sport & Leisure Swifts

3.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen's University+0.00on par

Sport & Leisure Swifts+0.00on par

Total goals

Over82
Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen's University ↓

Sport & Leisure Swifts →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–15%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

82%18%3.5

64%36%4.5

44%56%

Double chance

Queen's University or draw

81%

Queen's University or Sport & Leisure Swifts

83%

Draw or Sport & Leisure Swifts

35%

Winning margin

Queen's University wins by 2+

45%

Sport & Leisure Swifts wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Queen's University 1+ goals

94%

Queen's University 2+ goals

78%

Queen's University 3+ goals

54%

Sport & Leisure Swifts 1+ goals

79%

Sport & Leisure Swifts 2+ goals

45%

Sport & Leisure Swifts 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Queen's University (draw refunded)

78%

Sport & Leisure Swifts (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

69%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen's University at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

Sport & Leisure Swifts away — creates 2.00, concedes 3.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen's University attack 2.31 + Sport & Leisure Swifts defence 3.50 → ÷2 → 2.91

Sport & Leisure Swifts attack 2.00 + Queen's University defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Queen's University scores more

65%

level

17%

Sport & Leisure Swifts scores more

19%

Queen's University at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Queen's University will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff