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Granada vs Eibar W — Primera División Femenina 2018

Granada
Granada
Preview
15:00
Eibar W
Eibar W
10/4/2026Primera División FemeninaPrimera División Femenina · Round 6Ciudad Deportiva del Granada
Big match
45%
Granada
model favours
45%26%29%

Eibar W win just 11% against the top half (vs 45% against the bottom)

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
under 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Granada45%
×Draw26%
Eibar W29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada
1.50
Eibar W
1.15

Granada creates 30% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 77 away

creates per match

Granada
1.22
Eibar W
0.78

allows per match

Granada
1.51
Eibar W
1.77

finishing

Granada+0.00on par
Eibar W+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada ↓

Eibar W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Granada or draw
71%
Granada or Eibar W
74%
Draw or Eibar W
55%

Winning margin

Granada wins by 2+
22%
Eibar W wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Granada 1+ goals
78%
Granada 2+ goals
44%
Granada 3+ goals
19%
Eibar W 1+ goals
68%
Eibar W 2+ goals
32%
Eibar W 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Granada (draw refunded)
61%
Eibar W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

Eibar W away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.77 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada attack 1.22 + Eibar W defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.50

Eibar W attack 0.78 + Granada defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Granada scores more
45%
level
26%
Eibar W scores more
29%

Granada at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Granada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Granada
Balanced
Eibar W
Direct / counter-attacking
48%PossessionBiggest gap33%
71%Pass accuracy58%
12.0Shots9.0
—xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
GranadaEibar W

Head-to-head

6 previous meetings

4
Granada
1
Draws
1
Eibar W
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 33%
2–03–10–02–02–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Granada
LLLDW
W
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Granada face Eibar W (Primera División Femenina)

Primera División Femenina returns with Granada hosting Eibar W. Match starts October 4, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Granada host Eibar W at Ciudad Deportiva del Granada.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.