Eibar W 0–2 Granada: Result & Stats

Eibar W

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Granada

Lauri Requena 27'

E. Imade 6'

6/15/2024

Primera División Femenina · Round 30Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Eibar W34%

×Draw26%

Granada40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eibar WExpected goals in this matchGranada

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.43

Eibar W

1.31

Granada

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 45 away

0.92

creates per match

1.24

1.62

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Eibar W

0.92

Granada

1.24

allows per match

Eibar W

1.62

Granada

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eibar W+0.00on par

Granada+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eibar W ↓

Granada →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Eibar W or draw

60%

Eibar W or Granada

74%

Draw or Granada

66%

Winning margin

Eibar W wins by 2+

15%

Granada wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Eibar W 1+ goals

73%

Eibar W 2+ goals

38%

Eibar W 3+ goals

14%

Granada 1+ goals

76%

Granada 2+ goals

42%

Granada 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Eibar W (draw refunded)

46%

Granada (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eibar W at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.62 · 77 matches

Granada away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.71 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eibar W attack 0.92 + Granada defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.31

Granada attack 1.24 + Eibar W defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Eibar W scores more

34%

level

26%

Granada scores more

40%

Granada at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Granada will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

E. Imade

Granada · F

8.2

Match Events

6'

E. Imade↳ Laura Pérez

27'

Lauri Requena↳ Alba Pérez

64'

Jujuba Cardozo← Andrea Sierra

69'

Ornella Vignola← Naima García

73'

Zaira Flores← B. Amani

73'

Laura Camino← Ane Campos

83'

Natividad Cano← Carla Andrés

83'

H. Yonei← Arene Altonaga

87'

Laura Requena Sánchez

90+1'

Carlota Suárez← Laura Pérez

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EibarGranada

Overview

55%Possession45%

16Total Shots7

6Corners3

9Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots7

3On Target3

8Off Target2

5Blocked2

9Inside Box7

7Outside Box0

Passing

55%Possession45%

358Total Passes290

249Accurate Passes182

70%Pass Accuracy63%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2