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Granada CF vs Valladolid — Segunda División 2018

Granada CF
Granada CF
FT
5 – 1
HT: 4 – 1
Valladolid
Valladolid
L. Sanseviero 53' (OG)
M. Lama 40'
G. Petit 29'
R. Alcaraz 10'
I. Gonzalez 3'
Peter Federico 45'
2/14/2026Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 26Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Granada CF50%
×Draw26%
Valladolid23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Granada CF
1.48
Valladolid
0.91

Granada CF creates 63% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 67 away

creates per match

Granada CF
1.57
Valladolid
1.06

allows per match

Granada CF
0.76
Valladolid
1.39

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par
Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Valladolid →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw
77%
Granada CF or Valladolid
74%
Draw or Valladolid
50%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+
25%
Valladolid wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals
77%
Granada CF 2+ goals
43%
Granada CF 3+ goals
19%
Valladolid 1+ goals
60%
Valladolid 2+ goals
23%
Valladolid 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)
68%
Valladolid (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.57, concedes 0.76 · 83 matches

Valladolid away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.39 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.57 + Valladolid defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.48

Valladolid attack 1.06 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Granada CF scores more
50%
level
26%
Valladolid scores more
23%

Granada CF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

41
I. GonzalezGranada CFGranada CF · M
8.5

Match Events

3'
I. Gonzalez
10'
R. Alcaraz↳ P. Aleman
13'
Clément Michelin
29'
G. Petit↳ A. Sola
33'
Clément Michelin
33'
Clément Michelin
40'
M. Lama↳ J. M. Arnaiz
45'
Peter Federico
53'
L. SansevieroOwn goal
54'
J. Ponceau← V. A. Meseguer Cavas
54'
I. Garriel← C. Clerc
60'
P. Casadesus← O. Naasei
60'
J. Pascual← G. Petit
65'
S. Canos← L. Sanseviero
65'
Marcos Andre← Peter Federico
68'
Álex Sola
68'
Ramón Martínez
76'
M. Trigueros← R. Alcaraz
76'
S. Rodelas← J. M. Arnaiz
84'
B. Diaby← M. Lama

Possession

63%Granada

Shots

22Granada

Pass accuracy

53%Granada

Statistics

GranadaValladolid
Overview
63%Possession37%
22Total Shots8
2.06Expected Goals (xG)0.89
4Corners2
14Fouls15
Shots
22Total Shots8
9On Target2
10Off Target5
3Blocked1
17Inside Box6
5Outside Box2
Passing
63%Possession37%
490Total Passes290
431Accurate Passes223
88%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls15
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards1

Match Recap: Granada CF vs Valladolid

Granada CF beat Valladolid 5-1 in Segunda División on February 14, 2026.

Goals: I. Gonzalez (3'), R. Alcaraz (10'), G. Petit (29'), M. Lama (40'), Peter Federico (45'), L. Sanseviero (53' o.g.).

Granada CF controlled possession (63%) and registered 22 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes in Granada.