Granada CF 1–3 Valladolid: Result & Stats | La Liga

Granada CF

FT

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Valladolid

Domingos Duarte 63'

Jota 90'

Maranhão 53'

Óscar Plano 45+2'

11/22/2020

La Liga · Round 10Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Granada CF46%

×Draw26%

Valladolid27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchValladolid

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.04

Granada CF

1.44

Valladolid

1.04

Granada CF creates 38% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 80 away

1.29

creates per match

0.80

1.28

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Granada CF

1.29

Valladolid

0.80

allows per match

Granada CF

1.28

Valladolid

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Valladolid+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Valladolid →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

73%

Granada CF or Valladolid

74%

Draw or Valladolid

54%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

23%

Valladolid wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

76%

Granada CF 2+ goals

42%

Granada CF 3+ goals

18%

Valladolid 1+ goals

65%

Valladolid 2+ goals

28%

Valladolid 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

63%

Valladolid (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Valladolid away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.59 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.29 + Valladolid defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.44

Valladolid attack 0.80 + Granada CF defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Granada CF scores more

46%

level

26%

Valladolid scores more

27%

Granada CF at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Sergi Guardiola

Valladolid · F

7.6

Match Events

37'

Maxime Gonalons

39'

Carlos Neva

45'

Fede San Emeterio

45+2'

Óscar Plano↳ Sergi Guardiola

53'

Maranhão↳ Óscar Plano

54'

Y. Herrera← M. Gonalons

54'

Soldado← Jorge Molina

54'

L. Suárez← Fede Vico

63'

Domingos Duarte↳ D. Foulquier

68'

S. Janko← F. Orellana

69'

71'

77'

77'

77'

Javier Sánchez← Pablo Hervías

80'

Alberto Soro← Montoro

88'

Jota

90'

Luis Javier Suárez

90'

Jota

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaValladolid

Overview

59%Possession41%

16Total Shots9

5Corners3

16Fouls14

Shots

16Total Shots9

6On Target3

8Off Target5

2Blocked1

6Inside Box7

10Outside Box2

Passing

59%Possession41%

400Total Passes280

299Accurate Passes179

75%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

Discipline

16Fouls14

4Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0