Granada CF 2–1 Castellón: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Castellón

Ricard Sánchez 89'

G. Tsitaishvili 26'

B. Cipenga 69'

5/25/2025

Segunda División · Round 41Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Granada CF51%

×Draw26%

Castellón23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchCastellón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.95

Granada CF

1.54

Castellón

0.95

Granada CF creates 62% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 64 away

1.56

creates per match

1.14

0.76

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Granada CF

1.56

Castellón

1.14

allows per match

Granada CF

0.76

Castellón

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

Castellón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

Castellón →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

77%

Granada CF or Castellón

74%

Draw or Castellón

49%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

26%

Castellón wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

79%

Granada CF 2+ goals

45%

Granada CF 3+ goals

20%

Castellón 1+ goals

61%

Castellón 2+ goals

25%

Castellón 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

69%

Castellón (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

Castellón away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.53 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + Castellón defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.54

Castellón attack 1.14 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Granada CF scores more

51%

level

26%

Castellón scores more

23%

Granada CF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

J. Vertrouwd

Castellón · D

7.7

Match Events

26'

G. Tsitaishvili↳ A. Rebbach

33'

Albert Lottin

46'

M. Traoré← G. Zarfino

46'

De Miguel← J. Escobar

59'

Stoichkov← G. Tsitaishvili

61'

Daijiro Chirino

64'

Salva Ruiz← N. Markanich

69'

B. Cipenga↳ A. Lottin

72'

K. Jóźwiak← A. Rebbach

72'

Ricard Sánchez← Rubén Sánchez

72'

Miguel Brau← Carlos Neva

72'

Josep Calavera← Gonzalo Pastor

74'

Ricard Sánchez

83'

S. Weissman← Manu Trigueros

83'

Santi Borikó← J. Vertrouwd

89'

Ricard Sánchez↳ S. Weissman

90+7'

Manuel Lama Maroto

90+3'

Miguel Ángel Brau

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaCastellón

Overview

55%Possession45%

26Total Shots4

11Corners2

14Fouls11

Shots

26Total Shots4

8On Target2

7Off Target1

11Blocked1

19Inside Box2

7Outside Box2

Passing

55%Possession45%

392Total Passes323

332Accurate Passes254

85%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls11

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

0Offsides2