Castellón 3–2 Granada CF: Result & Stats

Castellón

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Granada CF

F. Brignani 53'

Barri 42'

O. Camara 30'

J. Pascual 63' (pen)

F. Brignani 35' (OG)

4/6/2026

Segunda División · Round 34Estadio Municipal de Castalia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Castellón52%

×Draw23%

Granada CF25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastellónExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.18

Castellón

1.81

Granada CF

1.18

Castellón creates 53% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.99

creates per match

0.83

1.52

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Castellón

1.99

Granada CF

0.83

allows per match

Castellón

1.52

Granada CF

1.62

+0.34scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castellón+0.34scores more

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castellón ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Castellón or draw

75%

Castellón or Granada CF

77%

Draw or Granada CF

48%

Winning margin

Castellón wins by 2+

29%

Granada CF wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Castellón 1+ goals

84%

Castellón 2+ goals

54%

Castellón 3+ goals

27%

Granada CF 1+ goals

69%

Granada CF 2+ goals

33%

Granada CF 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Castellón (draw refunded)

68%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Castellón at home — creates 1.99, concedes 1.52 · 6 matches

Granada CF away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Castellón attack 1.99 + Granada CF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.81

Granada CF attack 0.83 + Castellón defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Castellón scores more

52%

level

23%

Granada CF scores more

25%

Castellón at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Castellón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21

A. Calatrava

Castellón · F

8.2

Match Events

30'

O. Camara↳ P. Santiago

33'

Pablo Sáenz

35'

F. BrignaniOwn goal

42'

Barri↳ P. Santiago

49'

Oscar Naasei

53'

F. Brignani

58'

S. Ruiz← P. Saenz

58'

A. Sola← A. Lemos

59'

Pablo Santiago

63'

J. PascualPenalty

69'

A. Mabil← A. Jakobsen

69'

L. Alcazar← Tincho

70'

G. Petit← J. Pascual

70'

S. Rodelas← B. Diallo

76'

M. Trigueros← P. Aleman

80'

T. De Nipoti← P. Santiago

86'

A. Garcia← O. Camara

86'

M. Doue← A. Calatrava

89'

Alvaro Garcia

90+3'

Izan González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CastellónGranada

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots12

1.61Expected Goals (xG)1.78

6Corners4

22Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots12

3On Target6

6Off Target5

2Blocked1

10Inside Box10

1Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

384Total Passes354

299Accurate Passes289

78%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves0

Discipline

22Fouls15

2Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1