Granada CF 1–1 AD Ceuta FC: Result & Stats

Granada CF

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

AD Ceuta FC

P. Aleman 19'

C. Rodriguez 40'

12/7/2025

Segunda División · Round 17Estadio Nuevo Los Cármenes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Granada CF56%

×Draw24%

AD Ceuta FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Granada CFExpected goals in this matchAD Ceuta FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

0.93

Granada CF

1.73

AD Ceuta FC

0.93

Granada CF creates 86% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 21 away

1.56

creates per match

1.10

0.76

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Granada CF

1.56

AD Ceuta FC

1.10

allows per match

Granada CF

0.76

AD Ceuta FC

1.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Granada CF+0.00on par

AD Ceuta FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Granada CF ↓

AD Ceuta FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Granada CF or draw

80%

Granada CF or AD Ceuta FC

76%

Draw or AD Ceuta FC

44%

Winning margin

Granada CF wins by 2+

31%

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Granada CF 1+ goals

82%

Granada CF 2+ goals

52%

Granada CF 3+ goals

25%

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

61%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

24%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Granada CF (draw refunded)

74%

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Granada CF at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.76 · 84 matches

AD Ceuta FC away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.90 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Granada CF attack 1.56 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.73

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.10 + Granada CF defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Granada CF scores more

56%

level

24%

AD Ceuta FC scores more

20%

Granada CF at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Granada CF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

C. Rodriguez

AD Ceuta FC · M

8.2

Match Events

19'

34'

39'

40'

57'

P. Casadesus← O. Oppong

62'

Marcos Fernández

68'

Yann Bodiger

74'

M. Trigueros← R. Alcaraz

79'

K. Zalazar← K. de la Fuente

83'

M. Bouldini← J. M. Arnaiz

83'

L. Gagnidze← P. Aleman

87'

Youness← Jamelli

90+3'

C. Redruello Nimo← A. Ahmed

90+3'

Josema← C. Rodriguez

90+3'

S. Sanchez← K. Kone

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GranadaAD

Overview

57%Possession43%

15Total Shots9

5Corners2

10Fouls12

Shots

15Total Shots9

3On Target3

6Off Target3

6Blocked3

12Inside Box4

3Outside Box5

Passing

57%Possession43%

428Total Passes323

355Accurate Passes247

83%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards2

6Offsides1