AD Ceuta FC 2–1 Granada CF: Result & Stats

AD Ceuta FC

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Granada CF

K. Zalazar 79'

M. Domenech 28'

B. Diocou 66'

2/20/2026

Segunda División · Round 27Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

AD Ceuta FC46%

×Draw26%

Granada CF28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AD Ceuta FCExpected goals in this matchGranada CF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.13

AD Ceuta FC

1.52

Granada CF

1.13

AD Ceuta FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 6 away

1.42

creates per match

0.83

1.43

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.42

Granada CF

0.83

allows per match

AD Ceuta FC

1.43

Granada CF

1.62

+0.41scores more than expected

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AD Ceuta FC+0.41scores more

Granada CF+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AD Ceuta FC ↓

Granada CF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

AD Ceuta FC or draw

72%

AD Ceuta FC or Granada CF

74%

Draw or Granada CF

54%

Winning margin

AD Ceuta FC wins by 2+

23%

Granada CF wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

AD Ceuta FC 1+ goals

78%

AD Ceuta FC 2+ goals

45%

AD Ceuta FC 3+ goals

20%

Granada CF 1+ goals

68%

Granada CF 2+ goals

31%

Granada CF 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

AD Ceuta FC (draw refunded)

62%

Granada CF (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AD Ceuta FC at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.43 · 6 matches

Granada CF away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.62 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AD Ceuta FC attack 1.42 + Granada CF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.52

Granada CF attack 0.83 + AD Ceuta FC defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

AD Ceuta FC scores more

46%

level

26%

Granada CF scores more

28%

AD Ceuta FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "AD Ceuta FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

40

B. Diocou

Granada CF · F

8.3

Match Events

28'

M. Domenech↳ M. Illescas

33'

S. Sanchez← M. Domenech

37'

Rubén Alcaraz

38'

B. Diocou← R. Alcaraz

43'

53'

55'

62'

64'

64'

64'

S. Rodelas← B. Diallo

66'

Y. Bodiger← Youness

66'

B. Diocou↳ I. Gonzalez

77'

A. Bassinga← Jamelli

77'

J. Campana← M. Illescas

77'

I. Schor← K. Kone

79'

K. Zalazar↳ Matos Jose

85'

Aisar Ahmed

85'

M. Bouldini← P. Aleman

86'

Salvi Sánchez

90+4'

Carlos Hernández

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ADGranada

Overview

55%Possession45%

10Total Shots11

1.39Expected Goals (xG)1.36

5Corners5

19Fouls14

Shots

10Total Shots11

4On Target3

2Off Target5

4Blocked3

8Inside Box8

2Outside Box3

Passing

55%Possession45%

405Total Passes312

326Accurate Passes235

80%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

19Fouls14

5Yellow Cards3

1Offsides5