Gran Tarajal 0–0 Estrella: Result & Stats

Gran Tarajal

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estrella

10/2/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 4Campo de Fútbol de Tuineje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Gran Tarajal62%

×Draw22%

Estrella16%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gran TarajalExpected goals in this matchEstrella

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

0.81

Gran Tarajal

1.86

Estrella

0.81

Gran Tarajal creates 130% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 32 away

1.34

creates per match

0.56

1.05

allows per match

2.38

creates per match

Gran Tarajal

1.34

Estrella

0.56

allows per match

Gran Tarajal

1.05

Estrella

2.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Estrella+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Tarajal ↓

Estrella →

0–07%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Gran Tarajal or draw

84%

Gran Tarajal or Estrella

78%

Draw or Estrella

38%

Winning margin

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+

37%

Estrella wins by 2+

Team goals

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals

84%

Gran Tarajal 2+ goals

55%

Gran Tarajal 3+ goals

28%

Estrella 1+ goals

56%

Estrella 2+ goals

19%

Estrella 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)

80%

Estrella (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gran Tarajal at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.05 · 73 matches

Estrella away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.38 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gran Tarajal attack 1.34 + Estrella defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.86

Estrella attack 0.56 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 62%?"

Gran Tarajal scores more

62%

level

22%

Estrella scores more

16%

Gran Tarajal at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Gran Tarajal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff