Estrella 2–0 Gran Tarajal: Result & Stats

Estrella

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gran Tarajal

2/4/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 19Estadio Las Palmitas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Estrella40%

×Draw27%

Gran Tarajal33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstrellaExpected goals in this matchGran Tarajal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.21

Estrella

1.36

Gran Tarajal

1.21

Estrella creates 12% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 75 away

0.97

creates per match

0.97

1.44

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Estrella

0.97

Gran Tarajal

0.97

allows per match

Estrella

1.44

Gran Tarajal

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Estrella+0.00on par

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrella ↓

Gran Tarajal →

0–08%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Estrella or draw

67%

Estrella or Gran Tarajal

73%

Draw or Gran Tarajal

60%

Winning margin

Estrella wins by 2+

19%

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Estrella 1+ goals

74%

Estrella 2+ goals

39%

Estrella 3+ goals

16%

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals

70%

Gran Tarajal 2+ goals

34%

Gran Tarajal 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Estrella (draw refunded)

55%

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Estrella at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.44 · 32 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Estrella attack 0.97 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.36

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Estrella defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Estrella scores more

40%

level

27%

Gran Tarajal scores more

33%

Estrella at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Estrella will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff