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Gran Tarajal vs Atlético Paso — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
3/13/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Estadio Municipal De Gran Tarajal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Gran Tarajal38%
×Draw29%
Atlético Paso34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gran Tarajal
1.16
Atlético Paso
1.08

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 73 home / 59 away

creates per match

Gran Tarajal
1.34
Atlético Paso
1.12

allows per match

Gran Tarajal
1.05
Atlético Paso
0.98

finishing

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par
Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Tarajal ↓

Atlético Paso →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Gran Tarajal or draw
66%
Gran Tarajal or Atlético Paso
71%
Draw or Atlético Paso
62%

Winning margin

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Paso wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
69%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
32%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
11%
Atlético Paso 1+ goals
66%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
29%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
53%
Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gran Tarajal at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.05 · 73 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gran Tarajal attack 1.34 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.16

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Gran Tarajal scores more
38%
level
29%
Atlético Paso scores more
34%

Gran Tarajal at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Gran Tarajal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gran Tarajal vs Atlético Paso

Gran Tarajal beat Atlético Paso 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal De Gran Tarajal in Gran Tarajal.