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Atlético Paso vs Gran Tarajal — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
9/1/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2Campo Municipal de El Paso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Atlético Paso62%
×Draw22%
Gran Tarajal16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Paso
1.86
Gran Tarajal
0.83

Atlético Paso creates 124% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 75 away

creates per match

Atlético Paso
1.98
Gran Tarajal
0.97

allows per match

Atlético Paso
0.70
Gran Tarajal
1.75

finishing

Atlético Paso+0.00on par
Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Paso ↓

Gran Tarajal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Atlético Paso or draw
84%
Atlético Paso or Gran Tarajal
78%
Draw or Gran Tarajal
38%

Winning margin

Atlético Paso wins by 2+
36%
Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals
84%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
55%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
28%
Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
56%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
20%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
79%
Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Paso at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Paso attack 1.98 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.86

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Atlético Paso defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Atlético Paso scores more
62%
level
22%
Gran Tarajal scores more
16%

Atlético Paso at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12: Atlético Paso 3–0 Gran Tarajal

Atlético Paso beat Gran Tarajal 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on September 1, 2019.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de El Paso in El Paso.