Grama 1–0 Castelldefels: Result & Stats

Grama

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Castelldefels

Guillem Escarrabill 71'

3/6/2022

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 26Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Grama40%

×Draw28%

Castelldefels31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GramaExpected goals in this matchCastelldefels

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.04

Grama

1.23

Castelldefels

1.04

Grama creates 18% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 74 away

1.21

creates per match

1.07

1.01

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Grama

1.21

Castelldefels

1.07

allows per match

Grama

1.01

Castelldefels

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Grama+0.00on par

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grama ↓

Castelldefels →

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Grama or draw

69%

Grama or Castelldefels

72%

Draw or Castelldefels

60%

Winning margin

Grama wins by 2+

18%

Castelldefels wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Grama 1+ goals

71%

Grama 2+ goals

35%

Grama 3+ goals

13%

Castelldefels 1+ goals

65%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

28%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Grama (draw refunded)

57%

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Grama at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.01 · 95 matches

Castelldefels away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.24 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Grama attack 1.21 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Castelldefels attack 1.07 + Grama defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Grama scores more

40%

level

28%

Castelldefels scores more

31%

Grama at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Grama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Rosa← Omar Monterde

46'

Lucas Antonicelli← Fran Hernández

64'

Aitor Serrano← Kike Ramírez

64'

Manu González← Sergi Piña

71'

Guillem Escarrabill

74'

Alex Montalban← Oriol Molins

75'

Kevin Díaz← Guillem Hernández

75'

Genís Cargol← Jonathan Ferreira

86'

Oliver← Javi Solsona

Grama

Castelldefels

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Juanma Pons

46'▲Rosa←▼Omar Monterde

46'▲Lucas Antonicelli←▼Fran Hernández

74'▲Alex Montalban←▼Oriol Molins

86'▲Oliver←▼Javi Solsona

Grama substitutes

RosaAntonicelliMontalbanOliver

Manager: Miki Carrillo

64'▲Aitor Serrano←▼Kike Ramírez

64'▲Manu González←▼Sergi Piña

75'▲Kevin Díaz←▼Guillem Hernández

75'▲Genís Cargol←▼Jonathan Ferreira

Castelldefels substitutes

SerranoGonzálezDíazCargol

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Grama 1–0 Castelldefels

Grama beat Castelldefels 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on March 6, 2022.

Goals: Guillem Escarrabill (71').

The match was played at Nou Camp Municipal de Santa Coloma in Santa Coloma de Gramenet.

Grama vs Castelldefels — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Grama 1–0 Castelldefels