Castelldefels 1–2 Grama: Result & Stats

Castelldefels

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Grama

Carlos Cano 17' (pen)

Adrià Padillo 56'

Roger García 41' (pen)

5/11/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 34Estadio Els Canyars

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Castelldefels36%

×Draw27%

Grama37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CastelldefelsExpected goals in this matchGrama

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.29

Castelldefels

1.27

Grama

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 95 away

1.03

creates per match

1.34

1.24

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Castelldefels

1.03

Grama

1.34

allows per match

Castelldefels

1.24

Grama

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Castelldefels+0.00on par

Grama+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Castelldefels ↓

Grama →

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Castelldefels or draw

63%

Castelldefels or Grama

73%

Draw or Grama

64%

Winning margin

Castelldefels wins by 2+

16%

Grama wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Castelldefels 1+ goals

72%

Castelldefels 2+ goals

36%

Castelldefels 3+ goals

14%

Grama 1+ goals

72%

Grama 2+ goals

37%

Grama 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Castelldefels (draw refunded)

49%

Grama (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Castelldefels at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.24 · 75 matches

Grama away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.52 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Castelldefels attack 1.03 + Grama defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Grama attack 1.34 + Castelldefels defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Castelldefels scores more

36%

level

27%

Grama scores more

37%

Grama at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Grama will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Carlos CanoPenalty

41'

Roger GarcíaPenalty

53'

Fran Orellana← Kike Ramírez

53'

Alberto Padilla← Nono

56'

Adrià Padillo

58'

Pol Sánchez← Roger García

65'

Monir← David Acedo

76'

A. Traoré← Iván Julián

76'

Carlos Palou← Airan Ruvira

82'

Ferran Chacori← Álex Alba

82'

David López← Mario Gerboles

82'

Potus← Carlos Cano

Castelldefels

Grama

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Miki Carrillo

53'▲Fran Orellana←▼Kike Ramírez

65'▲Monir←▼David Acedo

82'▲Ferran Chacori←▼Álex Alba

82'▲David López←▼Mario Gerboles

82'▲Potus←▼Carlos Cano

Castelldefels substitutes

OrellanaMonirChacoriLópezPotus

Manager: Joan Esteva

53'▲Alberto Padilla←▼Nono

58'▲Pol Sánchez←▼Roger García

76'▲A. Traoré←▼Iván Julián

76'▲Carlos Palou←▼Airan Ruvira

Grama substitutes

PadillaSánchezTraoréPalou

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 1–2 Grama

Grama beat Castelldefels 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 on May 11, 2024.

Goals: Carlos Cano (17' pen), Roger García (41' pen), Adrià Padillo (56').

The match was played at Estadio Els Canyars in Castelldefels.

Castelldefels vs Grama — Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 5: Castelldefels 1–2 Grama