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Grafičar vs Backa — Prva Liga 2018

Grafičar
Grafičar
FT
4 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Backa
Backa
10/13/2021Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 12Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Grafičar53%
×Draw26%
Backa21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Grafičar
1.52
Backa
0.86

Grafičar creates 77% more chances

Season form · 126 home / 34 away

creates per match

Grafičar
1.75
Backa
0.74

allows per match

Grafičar
0.98
Backa
1.29

finishing

Grafičar+0.00on par
Backa+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Grafičar ↓

Backa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Grafičar or draw
79%
Grafičar or Backa
74%
Draw or Backa
47%

Winning margin

Grafičar wins by 2+
27%
Backa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Grafičar 1+ goals
78%
Grafičar 2+ goals
45%
Grafičar 3+ goals
20%
Backa 1+ goals
58%
Backa 2+ goals
21%
Backa 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Grafičar (draw refunded)
71%
Backa (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Grafičar at home — creates 1.75, concedes 0.98 · 126 matches

Backa away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Grafičar attack 1.75 + Backa defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Backa attack 0.74 + Grafičar defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Grafičar scores more
53%
level
26%
Backa scores more
21%

Grafičar at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Grafičar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Grafičar 4–0 Backa

Grafičar beat Backa 4-0 in Prva Liga on October 13, 2021.

The match was played at Rajko Mitić - Jug veštačka trava in Beograd.