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Backa vs Grafičar — Prva Liga 2018

Backa
Backa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Grafičar
Grafičar
10/4/2019Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 12Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Backa47%
×Draw27%
Grafičar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Backa
1.37
Grafičar
0.95

Backa creates 44% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 125 away

creates per match

Backa
1.36
Grafičar
1.14

allows per match

Backa
0.76
Grafičar
1.38

finishing

Backa+0.00on par
Grafičar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Backa ↓

Grafičar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Backa or draw
74%
Backa or Grafičar
73%
Draw or Grafičar
53%

Winning margin

Backa wins by 2+
22%
Grafičar wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Backa 1+ goals
75%
Backa 2+ goals
40%
Backa 3+ goals
16%
Grafičar 1+ goals
61%
Grafičar 2+ goals
25%
Grafičar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Backa (draw refunded)
64%
Grafičar (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Backa at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.76 · 33 matches

Grafičar away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.38 · 125 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Backa attack 1.36 + Grafičar defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.37

Grafičar attack 1.14 + Backa defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Backa scores more
47%
level
27%
Grafičar scores more
26%

Backa at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Backa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Backa vs Grafičar

Backa and Grafičar drew 2-2 in Prva Liga on October 4, 2019.

The match was played at Stadion Slavko Maletin Vava in Bačka Palanka.