Gradina 1–0 Čelik: Result & Stats

Gradina

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Čelik

11/24/2024

1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 15Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Gradina44%

×Draw26%

Čelik30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GradinaExpected goals in this matchČelik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.15

Gradina

1.46

Čelik

1.15

Gradina creates 27% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 42 away

1.68

creates per match

1.14

1.17

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Gradina

1.68

Čelik

1.14

allows per match

Gradina

1.17

Čelik

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gradina+0.00on par

Čelik+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gradina ↓

Čelik →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Gradina or draw

70%

Gradina or Čelik

74%

Draw or Čelik

56%

Winning margin

Gradina wins by 2+

22%

Čelik wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Gradina 1+ goals

77%

Gradina 2+ goals

43%

Gradina 3+ goals

18%

Čelik 1+ goals

68%

Čelik 2+ goals

32%

Čelik 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Gradina (draw refunded)

60%

Čelik (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gradina at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.17 · 59 matches

Čelik away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.24 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gradina attack 1.68 + Čelik defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.46

Čelik attack 1.14 + Gradina defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Gradina scores more

44%

level

26%

Čelik scores more

30%

Gradina at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Gradina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff