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Čelik vs Gradina — 1st League - FBiH 2019

Čelik
Čelik
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Gradina
Gradina
6/8/20251st League - FBiH1st League - FBiH · FBiH - 30Stadion Bilino Polje

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Čelik62%
×Draw23%
Gradina15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Čelik
1.77
Gradina
0.73

Čelik creates 142% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 59 away

creates per match

Čelik
2.00
Gradina
0.85

allows per match

Čelik
0.62
Gradina
1.54

finishing

Čelik+0.00on par
Gradina+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Čelik ↓

Gradina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Čelik or draw
85%
Čelik or Gradina
77%
Draw or Gradina
38%

Winning margin

Čelik wins by 2+
36%
Gradina wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Čelik 1+ goals
83%
Čelik 2+ goals
53%
Čelik 3+ goals
26%
Gradina 1+ goals
52%
Gradina 2+ goals
17%
Gradina 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Čelik (draw refunded)
81%
Gradina (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Čelik at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.62 · 42 matches

Gradina away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.54 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Čelik attack 2.00 + Gradina defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.77

Gradina attack 0.85 + Čelik defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Čelik scores more
62%
level
23%
Gradina scores more
15%

Čelik at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Čelik will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Čelik vs Gradina

Čelik and Gradina drew 1-1 in 1st League - FBiH on June 8, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Bilino Polje in Zenica.