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Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor — Türkiye Kupası 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
Pens
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Yeni Malatyaspor
Yeni Malatyasporadvanced
2/27/2019Türkiye KupasıTürkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsBornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Göztepe76%
×Draw16%
Yeni Malatyaspor8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
2.27
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.58

Göztepe creates 291% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 7 away

creates per match

Göztepe
2.54
Yeni Malatyaspor
0.86

allows per match

Göztepe
0.31
Yeni Malatyaspor
2.00

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Yeni Malatyaspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–17%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (15%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
92%
Göztepe or Yeni Malatyaspor
84%
Draw or Yeni Malatyaspor
24%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
51%
Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
90%
Göztepe 2+ goals
66%
Göztepe 3+ goals
39%
Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals
44%
Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals
12%
Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
90%
Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.31 · 13 matches

Yeni Malatyaspor away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 2.54 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.27

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 0.86 + Göztepe defence 0.31 → ÷2 → 0.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Göztepe scores more
76%
level
16%
Yeni Malatyaspor scores more
8%

Göztepe at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Yeni Malatyaspor

Göztepe beat Yeni Malatyaspor 1-0 in Türkiye Kupası on February 27, 2019.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.