Yeni Malatyaspor 1–0 Göztepe: Result & Stats

Yeni Malatyaspor

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Göztepe

B. Alıcı 44'

2/6/2019

Türkiye Kupası · Quarter-finalsYeni Malatya Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Yeni Malatyaspor41%

×Draw23%

Göztepe36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Yeni MalatyasporExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.58

Yeni Malatyaspor

1.71

Göztepe

1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 12 away

2.08

creates per match

2.08

1.08

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

2.08

Göztepe

2.08

allows per match

Yeni Malatyaspor

1.08

Göztepe

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Yeni Malatyaspor+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Yeni Malatyaspor ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Yeni Malatyaspor or draw

64%

Yeni Malatyaspor or Göztepe

77%

Draw or Göztepe

59%

Winning margin

Yeni Malatyaspor wins by 2+

21%

Göztepe wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Yeni Malatyaspor 1+ goals

82%

Yeni Malatyaspor 2+ goals

51%

Yeni Malatyaspor 3+ goals

24%

Göztepe 1+ goals

79%

Göztepe 2+ goals

47%

Göztepe 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Yeni Malatyaspor (draw refunded)

54%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Yeni Malatyaspor at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.08 · 12 matches

Göztepe away — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Yeni Malatyaspor attack 2.08 + Göztepe defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Göztepe attack 2.08 + Yeni Malatyaspor defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Yeni Malatyaspor scores more

41%

level

23%

Göztepe scores more

36%

Yeni Malatyaspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Yeni Malatyaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

44'

46'

59'

66'

Y. Öztekin← H. Akbunar

70'

A. Kamara← T. Bifouma

77'

C. Borges← Y. Gouffran

82'

83'

85'

86'

90'

Possession

Shots

Statistics

YeniGöztepe

Overview

42%Possession58%

7Total Shots5

6Corners1

14Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots5

3On Target2

4Off Target3

Passing

42%Possession58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

1Offsides2