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OFK Vršac vs Borac Sakule — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
CANC
00:00
Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
3/21/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 18Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

OFK Vršac57%
×Draw22%
Borac Sakule21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

OFK Vršac
1.90
Borac Sakule
1.07

OFK Vršac creates 78% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 42 away

creates per match

OFK Vršac
2.19
Borac Sakule
1.40

allows per match

OFK Vršac
0.74
Borac Sakule
1.60

finishing

OFK Vršac+0.00on par
Borac Sakule+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

OFK Vršac ↓

Borac Sakule →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

OFK Vršac or draw
79%
OFK Vršac or Borac Sakule
78%
Draw or Borac Sakule
43%

Winning margin

OFK Vršac wins by 2+
33%
Borac Sakule wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

OFK Vršac 1+ goals
85%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
56%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
29%
Borac Sakule 1+ goals
66%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
29%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
73%
Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

OFK Vršac at home — creates 2.19, concedes 0.74 · 42 matches

Borac Sakule away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

OFK Vršac attack 2.19 + Borac Sakule defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.90

Borac Sakule attack 1.40 + OFK Vršac defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

OFK Vršac scores more
57%
level
22%
Borac Sakule scores more
21%

OFK Vršac at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

OFK Vršac face Borac Sakule (Srpska Liga - Vojvodina)

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina returns with OFK Vršac hosting Borac Sakule. Match starts March 21, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

OFK Vršac host Borac Sakule at Gradski Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.