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Borac Sakule vs OFK Vršac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Borac Sakule
Borac Sakule
FT
0 – 1
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
9/16/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 7Stadion Sveti Nikola

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 43+ matches

Borac Sakule44%
×Draw24%
OFK Vršac32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Borac Sakule
1.67
OFK Vršac
1.40

Borac Sakule creates 19% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 43 away

creates per match

Borac Sakule
1.86
OFK Vršac
1.65

allows per match

Borac Sakule
1.16
OFK Vršac
1.47

finishing

Borac Sakule+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Borac Sakule ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Borac Sakule or draw
68%
Borac Sakule or OFK Vršac
76%
Draw or OFK Vršac
56%

Winning margin

Borac Sakule wins by 2+
23%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Borac Sakule 1+ goals
81%
Borac Sakule 2+ goals
50%
Borac Sakule 3+ goals
23%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
75%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
41%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Borac Sakule (draw refunded)
58%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Borac Sakule at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Borac Sakule attack 1.86 + OFK Vršac defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.67

OFK Vršac attack 1.65 + Borac Sakule defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Borac Sakule scores more
44%
level
24%
OFK Vršac scores more
32%

Borac Sakule at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Borac Sakule will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Borac Sakule vs OFK Vršac

OFK Vršac beat Borac Sakule 1-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on September 16, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Sveti Nikola in Sakule.