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Göztepe vs Giresunspor — 1. Lig 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Giresunspor
Giresunspor
A. Jahović 83'
P. Segbefia 9'
Ö. Özcan 90' (pen)
4/2/20171. Lig1. Lig · Round 26Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Göztepe55%
×Draw25%
Giresunspor20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.58
Giresunspor
0.85

Göztepe creates 86% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 69 away

creates per match

Göztepe
1.65
Giresunspor
1.00

allows per match

Göztepe
0.70
Giresunspor
1.51

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Giresunspor+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Giresunspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
80%
Göztepe or Giresunspor
75%
Draw or Giresunspor
45%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
29%
Giresunspor wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
79%
Göztepe 2+ goals
47%
Göztepe 3+ goals
21%
Giresunspor 1+ goals
57%
Giresunspor 2+ goals
21%
Giresunspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
73%
Giresunspor (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.70 · 40 matches

Giresunspor away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.51 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.65 + Giresunspor defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.58

Giresunspor attack 1.00 + Göztepe defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Göztepe scores more
55%
level
25%
Giresunspor scores more
20%

Göztepe at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
P. Segbefia
37'
Husamettin Tut
50'
Jean-Jacques Gosso
58'
Jones Carioca← R. Aydın
72'
S. Dikmen← M. Akın
72'
B. Fuchs← T. Kayhan
72'
Ö. Özcan← D. Abwo
73'
E. Aygün← P. Segbefia
76'
N. Tomić← V. Okumak
83'
A. Jahović
86'
Cihan Can
90'
Canberk Dilaver
90'
Ö. ÖzcanPenalty

Possession

51%Göztepe

Shots

3Göztepe

Statistics

GöztepeGiresunspor
Overview
51%Possession49%
3Total Shots6
3Corners7
20Fouls18
Shots
3Total Shots6
3On Target2
0Off Target4
Passing
51%Possession49%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
20Fouls18
2Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0
2Offsides6

1. Lig: Göztepe 2–1 Giresunspor

Göztepe beat Giresunspor 2-1 in 1. Lig on April 2, 2017.

Goals: P. Segbefia (9'), A. Jahović (83'), Ö. Özcan (90' pen).

Göztepe controlled possession (51%) and registered 3 shots to 6.

The match was played at Bornova Aziz Kocaoğlu Stadyumu in İzmir.