Giresunspor 0–3 Göztepe: Result & Stats | 1. Lig

Giresunspor

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Göztepe

4/20/2024

1. Lig · Round 31Çotanak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Giresunspor28%

×Draw28%

Göztepe43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GiresunsporExpected goals in this matchGöztepe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.27

Giresunspor

0.96

Göztepe

1.27

Göztepe creates 32% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 36 away

1.06

creates per match

1.33

1.21

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Giresunspor

1.06

Göztepe

1.33

allows per match

Giresunspor

1.21

Göztepe

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Giresunspor+0.00on par

Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Giresunspor ↓

Göztepe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–114%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Giresunspor or draw

57%

Giresunspor or Göztepe

72%

Draw or Göztepe

72%

Winning margin

Giresunspor wins by 2+

10%

Göztepe wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Giresunspor 1+ goals

62%

Giresunspor 2+ goals

25%

Giresunspor 3+ goals

7%

Göztepe 1+ goals

72%

Göztepe 2+ goals

36%

Göztepe 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Giresunspor (draw refunded)

39%

Göztepe (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Giresunspor at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.21 · 68 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Giresunspor attack 1.06 + Göztepe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.96

Göztepe attack 1.33 + Giresunspor defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Giresunspor scores more

28%

level

28%

Göztepe scores more

43%

Göztepe at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff