Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Göztepe vs Galatasaray — League #203 2026

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Galatasaray
Galatasaray
C. Ndiaye 70' (pen), 45+1' (pen)
B. Gomis 90+9' (pen), 87' (pen)
V. Nelsson 3'
2/21/2022League #203League #203 · Round 26Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Göztepe19%
×Draw22%
Galatasaray59%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
0.97
Galatasaray
1.88

Galatasaray creates 94% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 30 away

creates per match

Göztepe
1.00
Galatasaray
1.90

allows per match

Göztepe
1.86
Galatasaray
0.93

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Galatasaray+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Galatasaray →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–210%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
41%
Göztepe or Galatasaray
78%
Draw or Galatasaray
81%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
7%
Galatasaray wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
62%
Göztepe 2+ goals
25%
Göztepe 3+ goals
7%
Galatasaray 1+ goals
85%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
56%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
25%
Galatasaray (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Galatasaray away — creates 1.90, concedes 0.93 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.00 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Galatasaray attack 1.90 + Göztepe defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Göztepe scores more
19%
level
22%
Galatasaray scores more
59%

Galatasaray at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
C. NdiayeGöztepeGöztepe · F
8.2

Match Events

3'
V. Nelsson↳ Mostafa Mohamed
7'
Dino Arslanagić
33'
Mostafa Mohamed
45+1'
C. NdiayePenalty
61'
A. Cicâldău← E. Pulgar
62'
B. Kutlu← H. Dervişoğlu
67'
Kerim AlıcıPenalty awarded
70'
C. NdiayePenalty
71'
A. Kara← S. Aydoğdu
72'
A. Jahović← F. Di Santo
74'
B. Gomis← Mostafa Mohamed
74'
E. Kılınç← R. Babel
82'
Adis Jahović
85'
Kerem AktürkoğluPenalty awarded
87'
O. Tannane← C. Ndiaye
87'
B. GomisPenalty
90+6'
Berkan Emir
90+9'
Bafetimbi Gomis
90+5'
Victor Nelsson
90+5'
Emre KılınçPenalty awarded
90+2'
Bafetimbi GomisPenalty cancelled
90+8'
D. Tijanič← D. Arslanagić
90+11'
P. van Aanholt← K. Aktürkoğlu
90+9'
B. GomisPenalty

Possession

59%Göztepe

Shots

13Göztepe

Pass accuracy

53%Göztepe

Statistics

GöztepeGalatasaray
Overview
59%Possession41%
13Total Shots10
5Corners6
19Fouls10
Shots
13Total Shots10
5On Target7
6Off Target0
2Blocked3
9Inside Box8
4Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
376Total Passes269
295Accurate Passes186
78%Pass Accuracy69%
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
Discipline
19Fouls10
3Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Galatasaray

Galatasaray beat Göztepe 3-2 in League #203 on February 21, 2022.

Goals: V. Nelsson (3'), C. Ndiaye (45+1' pen, 70' pen), B. Gomis (87' pen, 90+9' pen).

Göztepe controlled possession (59%) and registered 13 shots to 10.

The match was played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in İzmir.