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Galatasaray vs Göztepe — League #203 2026

Galatasaray
Galatasaray
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Göztepe
Göztepe
Y. Akgün 61'
V. Osimhen 10' (pen)
Rômulo 27'
1/4/2025League #203League #203 · Round 18RAMS Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Galatasaray70%
×Draw18%
Göztepe12%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Galatasaray
2.23
Göztepe
0.77

Galatasaray creates 190% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 5 away

creates per match

Galatasaray
2.46
Göztepe
0.60

allows per match

Galatasaray
0.93
Göztepe
2.00

finishing

Galatasaray+0.00on par
Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Galatasaray ↓

Göztepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Galatasaray or draw
88%
Galatasaray or Göztepe
82%
Draw or Göztepe
30%

Winning margin

Galatasaray wins by 2+
46%
Göztepe wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Galatasaray 1+ goals
89%
Galatasaray 2+ goals
65%
Galatasaray 3+ goals
38%
Göztepe 1+ goals
54%
Göztepe 2+ goals
18%
Göztepe 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Galatasaray (draw refunded)
86%
Göztepe (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Galatasaray at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.93 · 28 matches

Göztepe away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Galatasaray attack 2.46 + Göztepe defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.23

Göztepe attack 0.60 + Galatasaray defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Galatasaray scores more
70%
level
18%
Göztepe scores more
12%

Galatasaray at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Galatasaray will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
Gabriel SaraGalatasarayGalatasaray · M
8.0

Match Events

9'
Djalma Silva
10'
V. OsimhenPenalty
27'
Rômulo↳ A. Dennis
37'
Anthony Junior Dennis
58'
Gabriel Sara
61'
Y. Akgün↳ D. Mertens
69'
Juan← K. Matsuki
69'
Victor Hugo← D. Tijanič
74'
R. Sallai← D. Mertens
84'
Lucas TorreiraGoal cancelled
87'
M. Batshuayi← V. Osimhen
87'
B. Kutlu← I. Jakobs
89'
A. Ildız← A. Dennis
89'
İ. Köybaşı← Djalma Silva
89'
T. Altıkardeş← L. Nielsen
90+2'
V. Nelsson← B. Yılmaz
90+2'
E. Jelert← Y. Akgün

Possession

59%Galatasaray

Shots

12Galatasaray

Pass accuracy

54%Galatasaray

Statistics

GalatasarayGöztepe
Overview
59%Possession41%
12Total Shots7
1.29Expected Goals (xG)0.53
10Corners4
12Fouls15
Shots
12Total Shots7
3On Target2
4Off Target3
5Blocked2
6Inside Box5
6Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
419Total Passes306
306Accurate Passes188
73%Pass Accuracy61%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
-1.03Goals Prevented-1.03
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides5

League #203: Galatasaray 2–1 Göztepe

Galatasaray beat Göztepe 2-1 in League #203 on January 4, 2025.

Goals: V. Osimhen (10' pen), Rômulo (27'), Y. Akgün (61').

Galatasaray controlled possession (59%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at RAMS Park in İstanbul.