Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Göztepe vs Bodrum FK — 1. Lig 2018

Göztepe
Göztepe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
12/26/20221. Lig1. Lig · Round 19Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Göztepe46%
×Draw28%
Bodrum FK27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Göztepe
1.35
Bodrum FK
0.96

Göztepe creates 41% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 57 away

creates per match

Göztepe
1.63
Bodrum FK
1.28

allows per match

Göztepe
0.63
Bodrum FK
1.07

finishing

Göztepe+0.00on par
Bodrum FK+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Göztepe ↓

Bodrum FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Göztepe or draw
73%
Göztepe or Bodrum FK
72%
Draw or Bodrum FK
54%

Winning margin

Göztepe wins by 2+
22%
Bodrum FK wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Göztepe 1+ goals
74%
Göztepe 2+ goals
39%
Göztepe 3+ goals
15%
Bodrum FK 1+ goals
62%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
25%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Göztepe (draw refunded)
63%
Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Göztepe at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.63 · 32 matches

Bodrum FK away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.07 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Göztepe attack 1.63 + Bodrum FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.35

Bodrum FK attack 1.28 + Göztepe defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Göztepe scores more
46%
level
28%
Bodrum FK scores more
27%

Göztepe at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Göztepe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Göztepe vs Bodrum FK

Bodrum FK beat Göztepe 1-0 in 1. Lig on December 26, 2022.

The match was played at Göztepe Gürsel Aksel Stadı in İzmir.