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Bodrum FK vs Göztepe — 1. Lig 2018

Bodrum FK
Bodrum FK
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Göztepe
Göztepe
5/26/20231. Lig1. Lig · Promotion Play-offs - 1st RoundBodrum İlçe Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Bodrum FK44%
×Draw28%
Göztepe28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bodrum FK
1.34
Göztepe
1.00

Bodrum FK creates 34% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 36 away

creates per match

Bodrum FK
1.83
Göztepe
1.33

allows per match

Bodrum FK
0.66
Göztepe
0.86

finishing

Bodrum FK+0.00on par
Göztepe+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bodrum FK ↓

Göztepe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Bodrum FK or draw
72%
Bodrum FK or Göztepe
72%
Draw or Göztepe
56%

Winning margin

Bodrum FK wins by 2+
21%
Göztepe wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Bodrum FK 1+ goals
74%
Bodrum FK 2+ goals
39%
Bodrum FK 3+ goals
15%
Göztepe 1+ goals
63%
Göztepe 2+ goals
26%
Göztepe 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bodrum FK (draw refunded)
61%
Göztepe (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bodrum FK at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.66 · 59 matches

Göztepe away — creates 1.33, concedes 0.86 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bodrum FK attack 1.83 + Göztepe defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.34

Göztepe attack 1.33 + Bodrum FK defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Bodrum FK scores more
44%
level
28%
Göztepe scores more
28%

Bodrum FK at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Bodrum FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bodrum FK vs Göztepe

Bodrum FK beat Göztepe 3-1 in 1. Lig on May 26, 2023.

The match was played at Bodrum İlçe Stadı in Bodrum.